Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.024961 0.028372 0.032095 0.036461 0.041444 0.046959 0.053531
2025-02-16 0.019312 0.023896 0.029349 0.036326 0.045034 0.055568 0.069314
2025-02-23 0.016350 0.021422 0.027819 0.036501 0.048019 0.062828 0.083404
2025-03-02 0.014033 0.019259 0.026169 0.036012 0.049737 0.068291 0.095439
2025-03-09 0.012671 0.018104 0.025592 0.036716 0.052920 0.075809 0.110863
2025-03-16 0.011266 0.016680 0.024417 0.036349 0.054417 0.080960 0.123298
2025-03-23 0.010516 0.016089 0.024327 0.037478 0.058123 0.089581 0.141707
2025-03-30 0.009318 0.014682 0.022853 0.036310 0.058132 0.092499 0.151441
2025-04-06 0.008452 0.013689 0.021897 0.035815 0.059086 0.096894 0.163887
2025-04-13 0.007526 0.012504 0.020511 0.034461 0.058457 0.098585 0.171883
2025-04-20 0.007199 0.012265 0.020629 0.035597 0.062083 0.107669 0.193503
2025-04-27 0.006878 0.012001 0.020671 0.036588 0.065523 0.116713 0.215942
2025-05-04 0.006579 0.011759 0.020744 0.037675 0.069300 0.126831 0.241695
2025-05-11 0.006096 0.011147 0.020115 0.037433 0.070628 0.132638 0.259972
2025-05-18 0.005727 0.010703 0.019744 0.037620 0.072755 0.140102 0.282239
2025-05-25 0.005301 0.010114 0.019049 0.037115 0.073478 0.144904 0.299627
2025-06-01 0.005071 0.009878 0.018992 0.037841 0.076692 0.154898 0.328797
2025-06-08 0.004730 0.009392 0.018413 0.037462 0.077614 0.160322 0.348820
2025-06-15 0.004590 0.009295 0.018584 0.038627 0.081843 0.172981 0.385991
2025-06-22 0.004211 0.008679 0.017663 0.037422 0.080906 0.174571 0.398519
2025-06-29 0.003936 0.008254 0.017094 0.036911 0.081418 0.179325 0.418775
2025-07-06 0.003600 0.007675 0.016157 0.035514 0.079825 0.179248 0.427641
2025-07-13 0.003522 0.007640 0.016372 0.036687 0.084161 0.192991 0.471256